Antaike sees China aluminium demand, exports up in 2010

News was prepared under the information support of Online Daily Newspaper on Hellenic and international Shipping "Hellenic Shipping News".

29 Nov 2009

China's annual consumption of primary aluminium is expected to rise 15 percent to 15.9 million tonnes next year as the Chinese economy rises and demand for Chinese goods from overseas increases, a senior analyst at state-backed research group Antaike said on Saturday. The expected demand growth is higher than Antaike's prediction of an 8.7 percent rise this year in China, the world's top consumer and producer of primary aluminium.
But China may still have a surplus and turn into a net exporter in 2010 after this year's record imports, due to high domestic production.
"Next year's economy should grow steadily and the growth rate should be at least 8-9 percent," Li Yang told a conference in Kunming in Yunnan province.
The economy of developed countries would recover from the global financial crisis next year and that would boost their demand for Chinese goods.
But Li warned that trade barriers may limit China's exports of semi-finished aluminium products in the coming year.
Trade Minister Chen Deming said on Friday China's economy could grow at around 8 percent in 2010, which was lower than the 9-9.5 percent predicted by Zhang Liqun, an analyst for macro economy at Development Research Centre of the State Council, the cabinet.
OUTPUT, EXPORTS
New capacity is expected to boost China's production of primary aluminium by 24.7 percent on the year to 17 million tonnes in 2010, which would be a big rise against a 0.2 percent increase expected this year.
Li predicted China's net exports of primary aluminium would rise to 300,000 tonnes next year versus net imports of 1.45 million tonnes expected this year.
With the estimated consumption, output and net exports, China may still have a surplus of 800,000 tonnes next year, Li said. The surplus would add stocks in China, weighing on prices.
In 2009, China may add around 700,000 tonnes of privately held aluminium stocks, Li told Reuters on the sidelines of the conference.
China's consumption of alumina, the main raw material for the production of aluminium, may rise 22.8 percent on the year to 33.86 million tonnes next year, Antaike analyst Huo Yunbo told the same conference. Of which, 32.81 million tonnes would be used by aluminium smelters.
Alumina production in China is expected to rise 26.3 percent on the year to 30 million tonnes next year. Annual capacity may rise to 40.92 million tonnes from 34.72 million tonnes this year.

Source: Reuters