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31 Oct 2010
The Middle East shipping fleet is expected to grow 11 per cent to 2,273 vessels within the next three years as orders are delivered from the world's shipyards, a study says. The greatest growth will be in the container ship fleet and oil tankers
, research by the UK shipping consultant Fred Doll reveals, after
record orders in the boom years between 2004 and 2008 when global trade
surged and oil prices quadrupled.
But as the industry recovers from
the global downturn, significant risks of late delivery and
cancellations remain, delegates were told at the Seatrade Middle East
conference that opened in Dubai yesterday. Anywhere from 5 to 35 per
cent of ship orders are vulnerable to slippages, said Chris Hayman, the
chairman of Seatrade, a shipping research organisation.
"It is a huge difference. The sheer uncertainty of this is a new phenomenon for the industry," Mr Hayman said.
Regional
shippers are benefiting from a rebound to global trade. DP World, the
ports operator based in Dubai, said container volumes grew 14 per cent
across its global network in the third quarter. The biggest gains were
recorded in Australia and the Americas.
The fleet of dry cargo
vessels used to carry iron ore, grain and alumina is expected to add 10
more ships to take the total to 631.
Scott Jones, the chief
executive of Emirates Ship Investment Company based in Abu Dhabi, said
the dry cargo transport industry was already relatively strong due to
the huge amount of iron ore and coal being imported by China.
But
there is also growing demand in the Middle East, Mr Jones said. The
largest project under construction is a steel pellet plant in Sohar,
Oman, which is backed by the global industrial company Vale and will
require 10 million tonnes a year of iron ore. With water supplies under
pressure in Saudi Arabia, the country's agricultural output will be
affected and it is expected to require increasing grain imports, Mr
Jones added.
Egypt is also an important importer of grain, from Russia before that country's ban on wheat exports, but now from the US.
"Overall,
there are quite significant advances and increases in this region,
which are quite interesting to local companies," Mr Jones said.
Shipping
rates fluctuate week to week in the container trade, said Waleed al
Dawood, the chief operating officer of United Arab Shipping Company.
But they were well above the troughs of last year, he added, declining
to give estimates.
According to the Frank Doll research, the
region's fleet of offshore vessels will grow 12 per cent to 370
vessels. The fleet of oil tankers will grow 21 per cent to 565 vessels
if all orders are delivered.
Source: The National